How Democrats Can Win Back the Senate

Republican candidates have ousted Democratic Senate incumbents in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana, winning an upper chamber majority of 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47, so it is hard to see how the losing party can win it back anytime soon.
The seats up for reelection in the 2026 midterms are challenging for Democrats. Polling analyst Nate Silver has speculated that their best hope is to try to win the majority back over two elections, winning two seats in 2026, and two more in 2028, while defending all the seats they hold now.
Before November 5’s presidential election, Democrats held a narrow majority of 51 seats (including four independents who caucus with the party), while the Republicans had 49.
Writing on X, Silver said Democrats would need to strategically target key races and capitalize on shifting demographics and a possible backlash against Donald Trump.
In his view, one possible path would be winning three of the following four Senate races: Maine in 2026, North Carolina in 2026, Wisconsin in 2028, and North Carolina’s other Senate seat in 2028.
In this scenario, if the Democrats managed to win three of those races as well as the presidency in 2028, while defending all of the seats they hold now, they would have a 50-50 majority in the Senate, with the vice president able to cast the tiebreaking vote.
“Yes, they also have some defense to play. And sure, they should also pick some more exotic targets like AK (Alaska) or whatever,” Silver wrote. “But it’s not *that* uphill, especially if Trump is unpopular, which he likely will be. Would have been much tougher at 45/46 [Democratic Senate seats].”
Newsweek has contacted the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee via email for comment.
In 2026, Democrats will need to defend only two battleground Senate seats as opposed to this year’s seven. Those will be in Georgia and Michigan with Senators Jon Ossoff and Gary Peters. Accordingly, Silver says these four races are the Democrats best path to a majority:
Maine is a politically split state, with Republican Senator Susan Collins and independent Senator Angus King representing the state, which is led by Democratic Governor Janet Mills.
Collins has represented the state since 1997. She is considered a moderate Republican who spoke out against Donald Trump during his first term.
In her most recent election, in 2020, she won the seat with 51 percent of the vote, with the Democratic challenger garnering 42.4 percent. In 2014, she won by a larger margin, 69 percent to 32 percent.
The Maine Senate seat could be a potential path for Democrats to flip a Republican seat, but given Collins’ long electoral history and support, it is unlikely.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis has had two competitive elections in the state, having won the seat originally in 2014, 48.8 percent to Democrat Senator Kay Hagan’s 47.3 percent.
In 2020, Tillis secured 48.7 percent of the vote to Democrat Cal Cunningham’s 46.9 percent, winning the seat again.
Given North Carolina’s history of ticket splitting, most recently seen in last week’s elections when a majority of voters backed Trump for president and Democrat Josh Stein for governor, it is possible Democrats could try to flip the state.
Republican Senator Ron Johnson won his seat in 2010, receiving 51.9 percent of the vote to the 47 percent received by Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold. He won reelection by three points in 2016 and by only one point in 2022.
A staunch ally of Trump, Johnson’s reelection bid in 2028 will likely be impacted by Trump’s popularity at the end of his term.
Wisconsin’s other Senator, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, won reelection last week by one point (49.4 percent to 48.5 percent) while Trump beat Kamala Harris there by one point (49.7 percent to 48.8 percent).
Given Wisconsin’s history of electing both Democratic and Republican Senators, this election is one of the Democratic Party’s best opportunities to flip a seat.
Republican Senator Ted Budd won his seat in 2022, receiving 50.5 percent of the vote to the 47 percent received by Democratic Cheri Beasley.
Silver said that while, overall, the U.S. swung 6 points toward the GOP in last weeks’ election compared to 2020, North Carolina only swung by three points. He said that while North Carolina did get redder last week, it “got bluer relative to the rest of the map.”
Two Republican senators currently serve North Carolina, but it has four Democrat representatives (out of a delegation of 14).
Correction 11/12/24, 2:28 a.m. ET: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that, in Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock is up for reelection in 2026. In fact, it is Senator Jon Ossoff who will be up for reelection in 2026. Senator Warnock’s next election is scheduled for 2028.